Citigroup has predicted end of smoking in the world
According to research made by Citigroup, number of smokers is steadily reducing and especially fast during the last two years. According to Citigroup analysts' predictions in the nearest 30-50 years in many developed countries people generally will stop smoking.
As mark authors of research made this year by Citigroup specialists, "per cent of smokers in developed countries is reducing and on majority markets this decrease is more or less continuing and steadily". "If such tendency remains, in this case by 2050 on many important for tobacco industry markets per cent of smokers will reach zero", - research informs. In USA, for example, cigarettes' consumption has notably reduced during the last two years. In the interview for Charleston Gazette Citigroup representative Paul Creedon has told that in 2009 sales of cigarettes in USA have decreased by 9.3%, but in 2010 6.5 % more. According to his words behind this fall stay two main factors: sudden increase of excise tax on tobacco products on federal, local and state levels and also fast spreading in the country strict prohibitions for smoking in public places. Thus, in 2009 federal excise tax on cigarettes has increased by 62 cents and made $ 1.01 for one pack of cigarettes. Even so many states and districts have also increased tax on cigarettes. "Now in New York one pack of cigarettes costs $ 11" - Paul Creedon says. But prohibitions on smoking now apply not only on closed rooms in public places but also on open, such as parks, pavements, territories neighbored by entrances into public buildings. During period of the most active consumption of tobacco products that fell on 1981, in USA, according to Mr.'s Creedon words, was sold 640 billions of cigarettes. In 2009 this figure made 329 billions, but in 2010 - 304 billions. In Great Britain peak of smoking has fallen on 1960's when in the country smoked more than half of adult people. To 2008 number of smokers has reduced to one fifth of adult population. Specialists connect this situation with the fact that during the last years people realize more the danger of smoking for health and besides, its role has plaid ban for smoking in public places that was introduced in 2007.
In their research that covers 18 developed countries, Citigroup specialists have used, in particular, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data, statistic data of various countries, Associations of tobacco manufacturers etc. Analyzing existing tendencies, Citigroup specialists came to conclusion that first of all - in 2028 smoking will disappear in Sweden where at present moment smokers make 15 per cent of adult population. After them will quit smoking Australians (by 2030) where live 17 per cent of smokers. Then - Iceland (by 2033, 16 %). In 2010 will quit smoking people of two countries - Canada (18 %) and Great Britain (21 %). After them - in Norway (2042, 21 %), USA (2046, 21 %), Netherlands (2048, 28 %), Belgium (2051, 20 %), Japan (2054, 24 %), Spain (2056, 26 %), New Zealand (2058, 18 %), Italy (2091, 23 %), Finland (2093, 21 %), France (2118, 25 %), Greece (2231, 40%). The last place in this lost takes Germany. In this country according to Citigroup predictions, smokers will disappear in 2280 (now there smoke 23 % of population). However, Citigroup analysts underline that tendency to smoking cessation is "very long termed". But thanks to price increase on tobacco products manufacturers of cigarettes at least 9 years will be able to make profit.